The Kyrgyz revolution is underway in Bishkek. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has been haunted and shouted out of office by opposition mobs. Ms Roza Olunbayeva, former foreign minister has assumed leadership in the country, ostensibly on interim basis for the next six months. The revolution has the blessings of Russia, another rogue democracy.
Is this good for Kyrgyz? No. Democracy has no other better variant however its shortcomings. History has it that revolutions sweep despots out of power and install worse. Revolutions weaken the rule of law and set a bad precedent on how to ascend to power. The just ousted Kyrgyz president , Kurmanbek Bakiyev, was brought to power through an uprising, the Tulip Revolution, in 2005. He has now been ousted by the same sword. What does this say of the fate of the next president?
Democracy thrive best when it is rooted in stable institutions. Democracy is not just a question of installing leaders in power by a popular vote or uprising. In any case, most modern day revolutions are caused by at most a 100 000 strong city dwellers taking government buildings and officials hostage. In such cases, the rural folks are disefranchised. Millions are registered to vote yet a mere hundred thousand topple governments.
What is the difference between a military coup and a coup by mobs? Both lead to instability and chaos. In most cases, the military turn a blind eye or give tacit blessings to a civilian coup. This was the case in Thailand, Georgia and Kyrgyztan in the last decade.
The Kyrgyz revolution will obviously embolden the Red Shirts of Thailand to scale up their protests against the Abhisit Vejajiva regime who was also a beneficiary of another uprising. Abhisit lacks the moral high ground to stamp out the protests as he is a product of an uprising and an elitist conspiracy. It seems the vicious cycle will just continue.
The squabbles in Georgia can be attributed to the Rose Revolution that prompted the resignation of Eduard Shevardnadze and the election of Mikhail Saakashvili. The Rose Revolution benefitted from the George Soros millions, I hope he has learned that revolutions and protests become habitual and has negative impacts on democracy.
Another country that is caught up in the uprising cycle is Madagascar. Elected governments are brought down by protests. Didier Ratsirika was bundled out of office by opposition mobs led by Mark Ravalomanana. A young city DJ, Andre Rajoelina, inspired another uprising that send Mark Ravalomanana into exile with blessings from the military. By the look of things, the drama is set to continue.
Not all revolutions are bad though. Sometimes people are defending democracy and in the process create a revolution. Attempts by Viktor Yanukovich to rig the Ukranian vote to stay in power in 2004 was met with street protests that led to the popular Orange Revolution. A second vote was called and Viktor Yuschenko was elected premier.
Most revolutions that topple elected governments, however proper and popular at the time, are harmful in the long term. They usurp the rights of the majority and give birth to shotgun democracies. In as much as some regimes are autocratic, we will be doing justice to democracy by defeating them through proper democratic processes.
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