Ocampo About to Strike? Ruto and Uhuru are Ocampo’s Obvious Prey

I am not psychic or clairvoyant in any way but all indications are that William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta will be guests of The Hague before 2012. Several strong hypotheses and events of the past few months support this prognosis.

First, the two are guilty by association owing to the sheer fact that they are the most prominent politicians from the leading protagonists in the 2008 Post Election Violence that brought the country closest to a civil war ever. This makes them the most plausible candidates. The Kalenjin and the Kikuyu communities have always had bones to pick with each other and are not the best of neighbors. It is important to note that both communities live in the Rift Valley which, and over the years, has been the epicenter of ethnic conflicts with political undertones. An outsider is forgiven if he concludes that tackling violence in Kenya boils down to addressing the Kikuyu-Kalenjin conflict. Even though this is not far from the truth, it is not exact. The bottom line has to do with the land question dating back to pre-independence days and the lack of cohesiveness between the communities due to discrepancy of culture and ways of life.

Ruto rushed to court the other day to have his name expunged from the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights report on Post Election Violence and Uhuru had done the same earlier. This point to two people who are keen on doing anything to salvage their erstwhile promising political careers that The Hague will surely deal a deathly blow. Could this be a blind coincidence? No! It seems they share some common gut feelings about the impending D-day with the man from Argentina and now they are in pre-emptive mode. It is instructive to note that Ruto is hobnobbing with the Kibaki side of the Grand Coalition which Uhuru is the top dog.

Since the Hague issue took the national fore, William Ruto has shilly-shallied with all options. Supporting the Hague today, Local tribunal the next and sometimes desperately unclear on any. At one time he made a mockery of the ICC by suggesting that it will take a hundred years for it to act and that is why he supports it. Uhuru, though less outspoken on the issue, has also added his two pence to the debate. Both have never been clear on their bet. Maybe because it is their life at stake. I don’t attribute this to lack of judgment or inconsistency of thinking but confusion. It is like extending a death row criminal the liberty to choose between lethal injection and the gas chambers. Whether he makes a careful choice or not, the end is just the same; death!

Though the same fate awaits the two gentlemen, that of a day with the ICC, I am not sure of Ruto’s case being sustainable. The ICC doesn’t boast a history of acquitting anybody so far, but he might make history as the first one to be acquitted. I am not sure of the evidence that the Waki Report and the ICC will adduce to link him to the planning, sponsoring, and instigating the violence in any way. I happened to have been close to his political machinery at the time and I can vouch for his innocence to some extend. My impression of him is of a very careful politician.

As I had earlier pointed out, the main thing that makes Ruto a suspect is that he was playing a leading role for ODM in the Kalenjin community and the assumption is that nothing would have happened without his knowledge. I am of the opinion that the Kalenjin, either through Ruto or otherwise did not plan the war in advance. I believe that the violence that followed was spontaneous and a knee jerk reaction of a people protesting a stolen election. The sheer numbers involved and the spread of the violence would have taken a machinery no less than the government to plan and execute. Even the path in my own tiny village with a homogeneous ethnicity was blocked! Besides, I was in a political position to know and would have been engaged in one way or the other. At least I can speak for South Rift with a lot of certainty because I was there at the time. Unless the North Rift, which I highly doubt, planned theirs, the war was not pre-meditated.

One likely scenario is that Ruto’s close lieutenants on the ground invoked his name to instigate, organize and sustain the violence. I am not a lawyer but I doubt whether anybody can be liable for prosecution for the actions of his political supporters.

Uhuru’s case is different from Ruto in a way. Uhuru was in the PNU side that stole the election. His people – the Kikuyu- were basically the target of ethnic violence because the president comes from their community and they had overwhelmingly voted for him. The Kikuyu were the first casualties in areas that were predominantly ODM. PNU used the police at their disposal to suppress the demonstrations in ODM zones as well as protect the Kikuyu. Many ODM supporters in Kibera, Kisumu and the Rift alley were killed by police bullets. The reaction of the Kikuyu was to retaliate against the killings of their people with the help of the rabid and outlawed gang called the Mungiki. There are credible allegations that the state issued them with guns. I thought the President and the Police Commissioner are culpable on this but Ocampo seems to have taken a different approach.

In Nakuru, Naivasha and Molo, the Mungiki slayed members of ethnic communities that were perceived to be sympathetic or had voted for ODM. It is alleged that Uhuru and others planned retaliation attacks in State House Nairobi. It is further alleged that they fundraised for the same. If this could be proved, and it is widely believed to be so, then Uhuru is in some real trouble. A fundamental fact to note is that it took time for the Kikuyu community to hit back. Could they have been planned, probably with the help of some leaders? It is for Ocampo to ferret out.

Though I believe the ICC is fair and impartial, apart from the fact that it hauls only members of the third world to its cells, Ocampo has inadvertently played into the hands of political schemers. His meeting with Raila and Kibaki made me a bit skeptical of his impartiality. His assertion that he will prosecute a few individuals fired my doubts: could he have been made to target a few leaders who are seen to be stumbling blocks in the 2012 succession game plan? I have not the slightest of doubt concerning Ocampo’s integrity but corrupted information can serve to slant anybody’s perception. The big question is; why not haul even ten characters to The Hague like it happened in Rwanda?

Allow me to play the devil’s advocate by suggesting that there is a scheme to fix Ruto and Uhuru by Kibaki and Raila. Kalonzo’s appetite to fix the two is so obvious. You just have to observe how gung-ho his protégé Kilonzo is on cooperating with the ICC and his offering to assist in arresting the suspects. Raila’s scheme also cannot make it to Political Science 101; Ruto is his greatest nemesis in the vote rich Rift Valley and sequestering him in The Hague is a one-off fix to this problem. Raila’s sojourn in the Central Province is hampered by one Uhuru Kenyatta who might run for the presidency. Confining him in The Hague obviously remove his name from the ballot. There is no other credible candidate to deny him the presidency because Kalonzo is a lightweight. Raila’s ally in the list is possibly Prof Anyang Nyong’o. This problem is already taken care of because they have persuaded Ocampo to single out two or three top guns. In any case, Nyong’o comes from Luo Nyanza where Raila is obvious to scoop all the votes. So, it is only one vote less in case Nyong’o finds himself in The Hague.

Kibaki’s interest in having the two guys in The Hague is the most intriguing and subtle. If Uhuru and Ruto are carted to The Hague, the environment for the 2012 elections will be so tense and poisoned that it will be impossible to conduct free and fair elections. There will be fear of a recurrence of violence. The UN will rule that his leadership be extended for the time being till the situation is calmed. Just look at Ivory Coast and you get the import of what I am talking about. Which African president is not a megalomaniac? Even a month in power is worth it.

As the ICC prepares to prosecute these guys, I beg to differ with Ocampo on one thing; trying to isolate PEV from its main root: rigged elections. The science of cause and effect, action and reaction would have been flouted. It is basic logic and commonsense that the PEV was sparked by the botched election of which the government and the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) are liable. Subverting the cause of democracy by stealing elections hence causing anarchy is a punitive offence that ought to be punished. If Ocampo chooses to ignore this fact for political expediency, that of sparing Kibaki and Raila, in itself amounts to perpetuating impunity. Overlooking this backdrop is tantamount to political witch hunting.

There was a general call for mass action by the leadership of ODM to make the country ungovernable after the vote was rigged. The ODM side was determined to reclaim its stolen victory at all costs while the PNU side was hell bent on defending their supposed victory by all means possible. This led to anarchy and bloodshed because the tension that had gripped the nation necessarily meant that neither side could manage its foot soldiers. I am sure that Ocampo is well grounded on this and will factor it in his prosecution.

I wish Ocampo could learn some basics on the psyche and norms of the communities that were parties to the conflict.

Let me speak for the Kalenjins because I understand them and I am one of its sons. It might shed light as to why Ruto is innocent.

The Kalenjin community is a peaceful people in peace time and cannot fight a war of blame. They voted for ODM almost to a man, and when the elections were bungled they believed that it was justified to reclaim it by all means possible. It was like an intifada of sorts. To the Kalenjins, a war means blood and spoils.

There is a lot of generalization and ethnicization of issues in this community. We versus them. Even when a single cow is stolen, it is taken as a community issue and whichever the tribe that stole it, they are made to pay for it. Since time immemorial, other tribes are labeled as enemies even in peace time. And when these ‘enemies’ wrong them, then they should pay for it or the community will come to disrepute. The community name and honor is guarded jealously and violently if need be. Bravery is held in high esteem, cowardice is frowned upon. If tribe A kills one of our own, even in Europe, it is just fine to repay with any of their kinsmen in Kenya.

One factor that led to the false notion the violence was pre-planned was how the Kalenjins were able to organize themselves so fast and mount such a coordinated attack. Historically, the Kalenjins are a warrior community. Wars are highly organized and systematic. The ‘manuals’ are handed down from generation to generation. War tactics are taught in initiation to adulthood. It was not hard to put this into practice in the PEV.

Ocampo should also examine the role of poverty in the Kenyan conflicts. In the height of the post election mayhem, youth mounted illegal roadblocks even in village paths to collect money from their own people. Movement was restricted. I was surprised to be harassed by young men who knew me yet I was not an ‘enemy’.

I witnessed the Borabu – Kissii conflict start. Jobless youth and primary school boys started it for fun. There was war in the air and they didn’t want to miss the fun. Loafers imagined some bounty from the war. Unfortunately the fun escalated to a full fledged conflict and assumed a life of its own. This was not part of the PEV because the Kisii had voted for ODM.


Simplifying the PEV to just some leaders organizing and instigating violence because they reckoned elections will be stolen is to miss the point. Inter-ethnic animosities in Kenya is hydra-headed. Even the dynamics that fed the PEV is complicated. It is interesting to note that members of the Provincial Administration were targeted and had their property destroyed simply because they were perceived to have voted for PNU in Rift valley.

If the PEV was not related to the elections, why did the people burn government property? Ocampo should investigate the PEV in light of the bungled elections.

Let me wish Ocampo good luck and Godspeed in fixing impunity in this country!